About the Project
The European Union has committed itself to reducing its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 20% by 2020 (compared to 1990 levels) and has made an offer to reduce GHG emissions by 30% if there is a satisfactory global agreement to combat climate change after 2012 (i.e. after the Kyoto Protocol). In January 2009, the European Parliament called on the EU and other industrialised countries to reduce GHG emissions by between 25% and 40% by 2020 with a reduction of at least 80% to be achieved by 2050 (all compared to 1990 levels) (CEC, 2008). According to EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas these objectives are fully in line with the Commission's thinking and with the conclusions of the October 2008 Environment Council (CEC, 2009).
However, the EU-27's GHG emissions from transport have been steadily increasing and are projected to continue to do so. The rate of growth of these emissions has the potential to undermine the EU's efforts to meet the potential, long-term GHG emission reduction targets if no action is taken to reduce them as illustrated in the graph below (Graph supplied by Peder Jensen, EEA).
EU overall emissions trajectories compared with extrapolated transport emissions (indexed)
In the transport sector, the EU has recently put in place measures to include aviation in the EU ETS, to reduce new car CO2 emissions per km and to lower the GHG intensity of road fuel. However, it has not yet put in place a strategy for addressing transport GHG emissions overall or a vision of the approach required to ensure compatibility of these with its overall climate goals. The aim of this project is to take a first step in developing such a long-term strategic approach to ensuring the compatibility of transport's GHG emissions with the EU's long-term climate goals.
The project is funded by the European Commission's DG Environment and is organised around the following themes:
1) Transport trends and drivers: How is transport demand influenced by the wider economy and wider trends?
2) What level of GHG emissions from the transport sector would be likely to be compatible with the EU's long term GHG reduction goals? What is the optimal timing for actions to achieve these?
3) How much GHG emission reduction is technology likely to be able to deliver and what other actions will be needed? What will the overall costs to society be for these actions?
4) How can likely changes in transport type and structure affect the sector's GHG emissions?
5) What policy framework is needed over the short, medium and longer term to ensure the compatibility of EU transport sector emissions with long term climate goals?
References:
CEC (2008) Questions and answers on the Commission's proposal to revise the EU Emissions Trading System, MEMO/08/35, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels
CEC (2009) Climate change: EU Commission welcomes EU Parliament recommendations on future climate policy, ED09-022EN, Commission of the European Communities, Brussels; see http://www.europa-eu-un.org/articles/en/article_8467_en.htm, accessed 10 March 2009